K.A. Towns 20,5 - manje - kv. 1.85
Memphis najbolje brani poziciju centra u ligi sa 16.9 poena (u 48 min). Uz to svi znamo da Towns slabije igra u gostima. Ove sezone u gostima prosjek 17,8 ppg a kod kuce 22,8 ppg. Protiv Gasola u karijeri biljezi 14, 14, 21, 17 ( i jedan i drugi indenticna minutaza). Uz sve to mislim da Memphisu treba ovde pobjeda na domacem terenu da se vrati na pravi put nakon loseg starta i smjene trenera te zato mislim da ce Memphis dat 110% da pobijedi vcrs. Minnesota igra b2b dok je Memphis odmarao nakon gostujuceg poraza od Clivelanda prije 2 dana.
Mislim da ce ova granica od 20,5 past za 2 poena do veceras jer ce ovo biti public bet broj 1!
Iako je u dobroj formi zadnji tjedan ovo je dobar ciglas i uvijek kvalitetan igrac za under odigrat. Spursi sa svjezim Aldridgeom i Parkerom docekuju Detroit. Spursi imaju iznimno dobru obranu a protivnicke PG igrace drze na 18.4 ppg/48 min. Reggie u zadnja 4 susreta zabija 25, 12, 23, 20 poena. Nadam se da veceras njegova dobra forma prestaje protiv Parkera protiv kojeg je zabijao u posljednja 3 duela 10, 11, 12 pts.
Turner je u dobroj formi i zadnja cetiri meca prelazi ovu granicu. Zabijao je 17, 15, 18 i 19 sto je za nekoliko poena vise od danasnje granice.
Indiana docekuje New Yorka koji je druga najlosija ekipa po branjenju centra, a vec su se sastali jednom ove sezone i Turner im je zabio 15 uz sut 5-8 i 4-4 slobodna bacanja. Kanter je dobar u napadu ali mu obrana šteka i svi ih pune.
Sinoc Vucevic 34, Olynyk neku noc 18 a Adebayo 4-5 sut.
Na zadnjih 4-5 meceva prosjecno uzima nekih 11 suteva uz 3 slobodna pa se samo nadam da ce veceras moci doci do suta od Oladipa koji cesto zna forsirati. Ako opet uputi nekih 10-12 suteva vjerujem da bi mogao prebaciti ovo. Takoder Turner zna ubosti poneku trojku i prosjecno zabija jednu po utakmici.
Ovo najvise volim veceras 1.50 koef da pobijede prvu cetvrtinu,naime kuci Fila igra izvrsno prvo poluvreme onda padaju.
Evo cetvrtine kada Fila igra kuci.
28-18 Washington WIN
22-29 Cavs LOSS
31-28 Orlando WIN
26-14 Portland WIN
25-15 Utah WIN
47-28 GSW WIN
Evo nesto i od mene za veceras mada je vec spomenuto- al eto kod mene je malo detaljnije...srecno
K.A.Towns [20,5] UNDER 3,5/10 (betf/paddy/SB@1,72) Minnesota
Obvius bet for today. Towns is going to play away game against Memphis. He is on average of 20,3 points this season- big decrease since last season, mostly thanks to having Teague and Butler in the team now. But to make things better, his average in home games is 22,8 and in away it is 17,8! Huge difference! Towns is player that is somewhat easy to predict will he go over or under- in last 10 games he has 2 overs and 8 unders on this margin- with overs being against OKC where he was expected as over because Wiggins, Butler and Teague had really hard job in both offense and defense and he has over against Suns where Minnesota scored 119 points. Tonight he will be going against Gasol which is a great defender and has power to not let Towns dominate in offense... Other players in Minnesota have easier job than Towns, so they should take more balls tonight. As said many times in recent time- Butler is taking bigger responsibility so that surely influanced Town's usage rate. Towns played 4 games against Gasol and he scored 14, 14, 21 and 17 points which is average of 16,5 but again those games were without Teague and Butler. Memphis plays at slower pace, with decent defense overall, they are home team so I think they will try to force their style of BB, so there shouldnt be too many points here: bookies predict around 202 only. Also, when we look at the stats- Memphis is one of the best teams when we look at number of points they allow from the point (which was expected). Towns can shot 3, and that is a minus tonight, but he needs to get really lucky from there to go over just because of that.
(wwin has him at 20,5 with normal odds... you can put some injured players as under or no OT on some games and play it there for better odds)
D.Schroder [22,5] OVER 2,5/10 (unibet1,85;bet365;betf/sb/pad@21,5) Atlanta
Here we have Schroder again tonight. Last game against Nets he scored 24 points with 24 shots taken, but he had only 1 FT on the game while he usually has 3-4 on average+ he had bad shot rate for 3- only 1/5. Tonight he will be playing at home... He has a big usage rate and Atlanta is having problems with injuries- they are missing several tall players, so in the end I think they might go playing small ball for most of the time which should open space for a lot of running tonight. Bookies expect fast game with around 220 points. Nets have 4th worst defense in the league when we look at points per possesions allowed so SChroder shouldnt have a hard job tonight- only problem here is if he is cold tonight and uninterested in offense and if there is a blowout.
Porzi i Haradaway opet out. Rapisno mu skace usage rate kad nisu to ova dvojica. Sinoc 18, proslu 22. Inace protiv Miamia je bio tu Hardaway i plus bo, tako da je samo 25 min igrao. Provesce najvise vremena na terenu uz Lee-a i verovatno Beasley-a. Turner lose brani kos (23.4 ppg), dok ce Lee-a da juri Oladipo, tako da ovaj mozda najlaksi match-up veceras. Granica mu je samo za kos podignuta od juce sto me cudi. Jedino neki rani bo moze da napravi problem.