Razmisljao sam se izmedju Smitha Jr i Doncica ali izabrao sam Doncica zato sto je u sjajnom naletu. Zadnje dve je pruzio odlicne partije gde je ubacio 19 i 26 poena. Atlanta veoma lose brani plejmejkera i suterske pozicije gde dopustaju u proseku 21.5ppg.Atlanta prima veliki broj poena u proseku od 122.5. Kada je Smith u igri, Doncic je na poziciji SG, kad je Smith na klupi, Doncic dobija slobodu da prenosi loptu. Svakako dobija i vecu minutazu od Smitha tako da ga ocekujem naseg internacionalca over.
Willie Cauley-stein 14.5 under
Veceras Sakramento igrao b2b utakmicu protiv Memphisa. Ako je Memphis po necemu poznat po jakoj odbrani centarske pozicije. Gobert im je ubacio 11, Plumlee i Len po 12 i 9, Turner i Sabonis po 8 i 14. Najvise dopustaju poene sa PG i SG pozicija tako da ocekujem da ce veceras Sakramento vise igrati spolja, takodje se nadam da ce Gasol biti na zadatku sa obzirom da je odmoran.
Capela -(ide na tatu odbrane)
Wcs - (b2b, plus ide na Gasola)
Sto se fikseva tice idem na osjecaj, ako ce CLE da izgubi kuci dvije zaredom od prosjecnih ekipa i pocne sezonu 0-4 onda i ja treba da padnem
Isto vazi za Lakerse, jos imaju Kinga
EDIT: Molim admine da mi prebace post u komentarisanje, pogrijesio sam thread
Susret 2 ekipe koje volu brzu tranzicijsku kosarku sa malo prave obrane, ali se odlucujen za doncica manje jer mislin da ce imat tezi matchup nego dennis smith jr na kojeg ce ic trae young koji je teski defensive liability. Luku ce vjerovatno naizmjenice cuvat i Prince i Bazemore obojica i vise nego solidni defenzivci koji ga trkacki mogu ispratit. Mislin da ce mladi Slovenac danas vise distribuirat balun nego sta ce se fokusirat na poene i uz nekih 10 12 uzetih suteva ga vidin ispod ove granice.
Nakon izgubljene tekme u produzetku jucer i 38 min provedenih na parketu (uz odlican ucinak), Embiid i njegova ekipa igraju b2b utakmicu opet u gostima, protiv Milwaukee-a.
Ovog puta Embiid ide na nesto pokretnijeg centra u vidu Brook Lopeza, a tu je i Greek Freak za pripomoc. Tesko je za vjerovat da ce ga trener forsirat puno u b2b utakmici, imajuci u vidu da je proslu sezonu gotovo sve b2b prosjedio na klupi. Također treba imati na umu da je Embiid van serijski igrac koji je kadra prebaciti ovu granicu u jednom poluvremenu, ali ipak ga uzimam under na ovoj visokoj granici.
Sritno svima i zivili!
Cetvrti pik Grizlisa ,devetnaestogodisnji krilni centar,veoma snazan za svoje godine i prema onome sto je do sada pokazao cini se da Grizlisi nisu pogresili.Stvara se hajp oko Ejtona,Doncica i Janga a on nekako prolazi ispod radara a za sada pruza sasvim solidne partije.
Veceras Memfis ide kod Sakramenta koji se sinoc raspao jos u trecoj cetvrtini sto nisam ocekivao ali veceras za minutazu Dzeksona to nece igrati veliku ulogu jer bi i u slucaju BO on trebao dobiti 25+ min.MIslim da ce mu igra Sakramenta odgovarati,slicno kao na mecu protiv Atlante,gde je ubacio 24 poena.Najvise forsira post igru a svakako da protiv Bjelice i Baglija tu moze dobro odigrati jer nisu neki vrsni defanzivci.Izvlaci se i na sut za tri poena,moze da pogodi,na koledzu je bio na 39% sto je solidno.
Nema ni Grina sto je takodje pozitivno za ovaj predlog.Po meni ima vrednost ali ce teren reci svoje.
Bez Ronda, Ingrama, 0-3 skor, SUNS-i protivnik, ovo moram uzeti kao dobar pick za veceras. Kuzma je imao dobar prosli mec preko 30 poena, ali ipak uzdam se u King-a sada da odigra 30+ i prekine seriju poraza. Srecno svima.
Nedostaju Rondo i Ingram, otprilike smo prosli mec vidjeli kako ce to vise, manje izgledati i veceras sto se tice minutaze i uzimanja suteva, te cisto ne mogu da iskoristim ovu priliku i da ga izostavim..
Hart mi se svidja takodje', ali 16.5 mi je malo previse...Da je 14.5 ne bih se dvoumio..
Takodje mi se svidja James preko, ali Kuzma moj pik za veceras..
Gasola jednostavno moram uzeti protiv Sacramenta koji je pokazao iznimno lošu obranu na visokim pozicijima, u obrani imaju ove brojke 1.29 PPP iz post up(#29.), 1,38 PPP iz Pick&roll roll mana(#22), 1.21 PPP iz put backa(#21.), te su ih protivnicki centri do sada sa lakocom punili Gobert, Davis...neovisno o datim poenima, procenat suta im je bio izvrstan te je samo pitanje koliko ce Gasol biti hranjen loptama večeras, u što ne sumnjam jer Memphis nema toliko opcija u napadu tako da ce ici sigurno više na njega jer obrana Kingsa u reketu je kriminalna, primaju trenutno 67.5 poena po tekmi sto ih stavlja na predposljednje mjesto u ligi. A kada Gobertu das 18 poena, onda svakako WCS i Marvin Bagley ne predstavljaju prijetnju. 17.5 poena je neka realna granica za njega ako ne i više s obzirom protiv koga igra.
K.Walker [25,5] OVER 3,5/10 (betf/padd/sb@1,73) Hornets
Kemba is having a monster start of the season and I must say that I am proud that we had him in the group 3 times- and all 3 times he made us earn the $$$. We are going again with him tonight and we are hoping for 4/4.
Kemba started season with a 33 points average in 4 games. This seems like a good start for ANY player, but this is even better- 2/4 games were a heavy blowouts, so in one of those Kemba played only 27 minutes and in the other one only 34 minutes. When the games were close he played 39 and 40 minutes. Tonight Hornets are palying an away game against Bulls, they are favorites to win, but I think it will be hard to blowout Bulls wihle they are playing at home, so we should see a somewhat close game until last few minutes and that should lead to Kemba playing up to 40 minutes- and to make it better, he has the second largest usage rate in the league at 33% (only Giannis has bigger at 36%). So if he continues in the same direction, and if he plays the projected minutes, I think he shouldnt have big problems going over this margin and I think soon we will see him at 30 pt margins.
What is great here- since Howard left Hornets started running more, they play with more possessions without trowing the ball in the post so they have scored decent amount of points in the first 4 games- 112, 120, 113 and 106. Tonight they are going against young Bulls which are running a lot! They have a young athletic core that doesnt play a good defense but plays with big number of possesions which lead to allowing many points- in the first 3 games it was 127, 118 and 115. Bookies predict this game to be a high scoring one at around 230 points and that surely helps.
T.Prince [19,5] OVER 3/10 (unibet@1,87; bet365@1,83) Atlanta
Here we go again. 2/3 with Prince this season- last game he went under because of few unlucky things that happened- Prince got injured in the first half and had to go to the locker room. That have led to him playing much less in the first 3 quarters than expected, and then in the 4th quarter there was no need to have him back because it was already a BO.
Tauren Prince has the highest usage rate in Atlanta as expected- it is close to 30%, and when we say that we can expect him at around 35 minutes we can say that 20+ shouldnt be too hard. In the first game he scored 21 points in 32 minutes (blowout), in the second game he played only 23 minutes (PF problem and blowout) and he scored 28 points; in the third game against Cavs he scored 14 points in 26 minutes- he landed badly so he had to go out which resulted in him playing much less, and to put a cherry on top- it was a heavy BO so he didnt really played in the last quarter (probably only a 1 minute spent on the floor).
Tonight he will be going against Dallas, which has a nice young team led by youngesters Doncic and Smith. So they tend to run a lot and not play a good defense. Because of this (and Atlanta being in similar situation) bookies are expecting around 235 points which is a lot. Playing at home should be a plus for Prince.
The only problem with good potential of happening is Trae Young getting hot and starts forcing his shot.
T.Hardaway [21,5] OVER 2,5/10 (betf/padd/sb/uni@1,8) Knicks
Analysis should be the same as last 4 times. He was over all those 4 times and I expect to see him 5/5 after this game. Hardaway has really high usage rate- one of the highest in the league at 32%. What I also noticed in the last 2 games I watched Knicks- Hardaway stays on the floor even when he is in "PF trouble". So potential "PF problem" doesnt exist here UNLESS he completely fouls out (gets 6 fouls).
He is averaging 27 points this season, and he is playing 33 minutes on average. In a close games, he should be playing more than that- up to 37-38 points like against Nets and Boston (where he scored 29 and 24 points). Against Boston he had the biggest challenge, but he managed to score 24 points even though the game was only at 204 points in the end. Tonight he is going against decent defense, but bookies predict around 223 points so I think he should have an easier time than against Boston, but because the margin is really high- I decided to not put many units on him.
What is really helpful here is the fact that Kanter goes against Whiteside- that should be a problem for Kanter on both ends of the floor. Whiteside can play a good defense and Kanter in the last 2-3 games tried some shots that simply can't work against Whiteside, so I don't think he will even try unless he has a really good chance ( I am not evne thinking about playing him under though). On the opposite side, WH could push Kanter into PF trouble which could be usefull, because Vonley would play with Hardaway, and Vonley has around 5% lower usage rate than Kanter, so that 5% would go to other players- probably a half of that would go to Hardaway.
S.Ibaka [13,5] OVER 2,5/10 (betf/padd/sb@1,8) Toronto
From what we saw and heard, we can see that Toronto will be adapting their starting 5 based on who they play- so in situations where opponents have a 5 that can take 3pt and is good at mid distance- they will be starting Ibaka and play him big minutes because Ibaka is more mobile than Valanciunas and can close than players like Towns better than Vala. Valanciunas will be playing against classical centers like Gortat, Gobert etc. First time we could see this in practice was against Boston Celtics on October 19th when Ibaka played 34 minutes, and managed to score 21 points. Tonight because of Towns I expect him to play close to 35 minutes again. Difference between this and Celtics game is that now he will go against Terrible defender (Horford is really good in defense) and that is an extra great reason to take him. Game is projected at 228 points, Toronto is favorite to win, so Toronto scoring more than 110 is surely a plus.
I was also thinking of maybe playing Valanciunas as under here because he wont play more than 15 minutes but I couldnt find him in offer anywhere.