L.Kennard PRA [25,5] over 3u neds@1,87; DET
B.Brown PRA [21,5] over 2,5u bet365@1,9; DET
Just like last time, Pistons are without Frazier, Rose and Jackson. That means that Brown and Kennard will be taking everything they can handle tonight- both should play above 35 minutes, maybe even around 40 if there isn't a blowout. Kennard is already on average PRA of 25, and now with these changes you expect him to have a PRA of around 30. In the last 2 games he had 31 and 33 (small blowout).
In the last two games Brown's PRA was 28 (small blowout in which he played 2 minutes less) and 31 against the Nets. With everyone being OUT he will start and play a lot. Starting point guard which plays close to 40 minutes shouldn't have problems getting to 20 PRA. I was thinking between playing this and over 4,5 assists.. Both seem good... Over 2,5 TO also seemed nice because odds are really good. Let's hope I didn't picked the wrong one!
Opponent are NY Knicks. Bellow average defense, but also a bellow average pace, so not many points are expected here which is a minus for this bet.
J.Parker pr [25,5] over 3u bet365@1,86; ATL
SB/BF had the same offer with normal odds, but while doing the write up they dropped it down to 1,7...
As long as Collins is suspended, this seems like a great bet. Parker is averaging PR of 19.2, but is expected to play 50% more minutes than usual.. and also spend it mostly on PG and sometimes even C. So overall more chances for rebounds and a lot more time spent on the floor. They increased the margin by 2 since the last game where he had 19/8 against the Spurs. Tonight the match up overall is much easier- Atlanta is playing against the Bulls and that should be a faster game than the one that was played yesterday. This game is projected at 221 points.
It is worth saying that Young is coming off an injury and should be more interested in assisting as in last game where he had 13 assists.
J.Embiid pr [37,5] under 2,5u sb/bf@1,83; PHI
We can't really look at the PRA average this season because even though it is only 37 and it looks nice for this margin- he only played 3 games and in one he was ejected and the second one was a blowout. We can't look at his stats against Gobert either because they only met 3 times. One of those times was in Embiid's rookie season, and other 2 were both in 2018 (roughly one year ago). His PRA is 33, but like I said- it its lower than what you would expect.
So the only thing I can talk about here is the match up. He will be going against the best defender on C position and a DPOY candidate. Gobert is great in what he does and scoring against him in the post is really hard. Rebounding as well. Utah was the second best team when it comes to rebounds allowed in the last season. It is a small sample this season, but they are still up there- currently the third best. Game should be slow without many points- it is projected at only 211 points. So, this should mean that playing unders here (especially on Phila) has an extra value.
This bet is on 2 points lower margin on bet365, so it kinda shows that we are talking about good under here.
E.Paschall pt+reb [24,5] over 2u all@1,88; GSW
Game is expected to be fast and with many points. Houston is a huge favorite, but someone also needs to score that 100+ points for GSW. I was thinking between paschall, Bowman and Poole. Poole seemed unefficient so I was choosing between the other two. Margin was similar but paschall was doing more in the last two games so I went with him. He had 25 and 4 against Hornets when GSW scored 87 and 34 and 13 against Portland where GSw scored 127. Paschall's match up will be an undersized PF- PJ Tucker. That should be easy rebounds for Paschall if he goes for them.
Bo is expected, and is a big danger of course but GSW is playing with like 8 active players, so even in case of Bo Paschall might end up playing close to 40 minutes which should be enough to see him going over this margin.
P.Siakam [23,5] over 2u bf/sb@1,77; TOR
Average PRA of 38 (26 points on average). He played 6 games and on this margin he has 4 overs. Those two unders- both were PF trouble. In one he fouled out and was going against a really hard defense, and in the second game it was PF trouble plus BO.
Tonight he should have a super easy match up against Bjelica... and not only in offense-but also in defense, so he shouldn't get into a PF trouble. Toronto is a 8-9 points favorite so there is a danger of blowout. Because of this I took only the points. If I expected a close game I would go for a PRA bet.
Plus i Williams PRA 31,5+ al mislim da se to vise nigdje ne moze nac (mozda 32,5)