Najjača košarkaška liga na svijetu i naša specijalnost :mrgreen:
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By nbaspecialtips
#155643 A.Drummond PT+REB [30.5] over 1.66u sb/bf@1.83; PHI

-He is 33.5 on PRA at most bookies, at some even 34.5. I find PR 30,5 better because he isn't supposed to get over 3 assists, or in other words- chances of getting 3 or less assists should be higher than to get 4+.
-No Embiid so Drummond will play good minutes, probably 33-35.
-Toronto is without Siakam and Birch. They will use Achiuwa, Barnes and Boucher on C, all much shorter and weaker than Drummond, so Drummond should be dominating in the paint.

S.Barnes PRA [24.5] over 1.25u bet365/uni@1.76; TOR

-Has 7 overs in 10 games on this margin with him finishing those under games with PRAs of 19, 17, 22 so not too bad.
-He is averaging PRA of 28 in 34 minutes played on average. When games are close he should be playing even more;
-Phila is without Embiid so their defense inside becomes worse by a decent margin which should be very helpfull here.
-Toronto is without players on tall positions so Barnes should end up playing a lot, probably a good amount of it on C, so he should also get more rebounds.

P.Achiuwa PRA [18.5] over 1u bet365@1.83; TOR

-He is averaging around 18 PRA this season, but today Toronto will be without Siakam and Birch, and it seems like Nurse gave up on Boucher being a real option, so Achiuwa should be looking at a very nice playing time today. Probably around 30+ minutes as until Birch went down, he was sharing the floor with Birch (there was always one of them on the floor, never both of them), so I wouldn't be surprised to see Achiuwa play 36-37 minutes.
-They only have one center option on the bench now and that's 150 pounds Boucher which should be unplayable today (unless Nurse gives him one more chance).

T.Harris PRA [29.5] over 1.25u neds/lads@1.82; PHI

-He is 30.5 elsewhere with lower odds.
-Has 4/6 overs in first 6 games with average of 34 PRA, well above this line. In all of these games Embiid played. With Embiid OUT, Harris should see a big usage rate increase


B.Adebayo PRA [33.5] over 1.25u sb/bf/365@1.85; MIA

-He is averaging right around 33.5 this season.
-Today he should have a much better game than on average for a simple reason that Butler and Morris are OUT. When Butler is off the floor, Adebayo has a huge 8% usage rate increase, and per 36 min played (when Butler isn't on the floor) Bam is averaging PRA of 47 which is well above this margin;
-Going against not a great defense- third most rebounds allowed.
-He has a small knee injury but it shouldn't be an issue.

N.Batum PRA [17.5] over 0.5u uni@1.79; LAC

-Lac is without Ibaka and Morris for most of the season now so Batum is starting on PF and playing good minutes.
-He slowly started the season coming of injury and is averaging PRA of 19.8 while playing 28 minutes on average (he plays around 30+ in close games).
-In the last 5 games he has 5/5 overs with average PRA of 24.4.

M.Turner PRA [21.5] under 0.5u bet365@1.8; IND

-B2B game, going against Utah which is an 11 points favorite so there is a decent chance for a blowout.
-Utah is the best teams when it comes to stopping the opponent from getting the rebounds.
-Match up is super hard in shape of Rudy Gobert.
-Smaller bet because Turner is very inconsistent.