Najjača košarkaška liga na svijetu i naša specijalnost :mrgreen:
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By nbaspecialtips
#156183 D.Brooks pt [19.5] over 1.33u sb/bf/alll@1.81; MEM

-PRA is at 26.5 which is too much of a difference- its a higher chance that he will end up with 6-7 PR than more than that.
-Memphis is without Morant, so everyone is getting a higher usage rate and with the small sample we have- Brooks is the one benefiting the most. He is averaging 30 points per 36 minutes when Morant isn't on the floor (73 min sample only). Last game he had 21 points in 21 minutes played in a heavy blowout where he only played 21 minutes, so with his normal playing time of around 30 he should go over this line.

J.JacksonJr PRA [24.5] over 1u uni/all@1.94; MEM

-Was a win last time so he gets a one more chance.
-He has usage rate of 24% on average this season, but there is a huge difference with is Morant playing or not, because when he is, Jackson's usage rate is around 20, but without him its over 30% (the biggest difference for any Memphis player), therefore I would expect him to have a good usage rate today as well and to get close to around 20 points and get the rest trough rebounds and assists; He is taking 24 shots per 36 minutes when Morant isn't playing.
-Game should be close as Toronto is only a small favorite.
-Two bad things here is the fact that Toronto plays somewhat slower, and that Jackson can sometime be an idiot and get quickly into PF trouble. If that doesn't happen and he ends up playing 30+ minutes as he should, he shouldn't be having issues of going over.

F.VanVleet PRA [29.5] over 1.25u unibet/888@1.89; TOR

-One point higher on others;
-He is averaging PRA of 31.6 this season in 38 minutes played on average, but it is very commond for him to play 40 or more when games are close;
-He is going against poor defense with fast pace and he will have a somewhat easy match up. Siakam on the other hand should have a harder time against Jackson, and that should lead to VanVleet doing more damage in offense;
-OG isn't playing and that's almost 30 PRA that need to go somewhere. Trent is also injured and might miss this game (he didn't played the last game and wasn't in practice in the meantime) so thats extra 22 PRA.
-In Toronto, VanVleet is the guy that benefits the most when not sharing the floor with OG- he gets an usage rate increase of almost 5% which results more points. Per 36 minutes he is averaging PRA of (on a big sample) 31.1 which is 33.5 per 39 min which he is expected to play today. In a smaller sample with both Trent and OG off the court, VanVleet is averaging PRA of 35.7 per 36 min.

L.Aldridge PRA [23.5] over 0.75u uni/sb/bf@1.89; BKN

-He averages almost 21 PRA per game while playing 22 minutes on average. He completely outplayed Griffin this season, so in the last 5 games Aldridge is averaging almost 30 minutes and PRA of 27. He is now starting while Griffin isn't playing at all, so Aldridge should be playing close to 30 minutes per game, and if he keeps his average PRA/minute he should easily go over this line;

P.Mills PRA [17.5] over 0.66u 365/uni@1.8; BKN

-He was averaging PRA of 13.4 PRA in 24.5 minutes played in the first 13 minutes. After Harris went down, Mills is averaging PRA of 22.3 in 34 minutes played (3 of these were blowouts).
-Harris is still OUT. Mills will probably go against Fournier, therefore having the easiest match up of Brooklyn's 1-3.
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By nbaspecialtips
#156194 D.Melton PRA [14.5] over 1.5u bet365@1.8; MEM

-He is averaging PRA 16.3 PRA this season with 25 minutes played on average. He is benefiting a lot from Morant not playing- he should be getting a good playing time, and at the same time he is also benefiting a lot from increase in usage rate- when he was sharing the floor with Morant he had an usage rate of around 15%, but without Morant (100 minutes sample) it goes over 25%. Per 36 minutes without Morant he averages PRA of 31.

A.Simmons PRA [26.5] over 1u bet365/sb/bf@1.86; POR

-In the small sample we have, when Lillard and McCollum both aren't playing, Simmons is the sheriff in Portland. With Lillard being OUT, Simmons should be getting more time on the floor overall, but also without McCollum, so he will have a lot of playing time where he will have a huge usage rate.
-Per 36 minutes without Lillard (226 min sample, but in 200 of these McCollum played so Simmons should do even better) Simmons is averaging PRA of 29.6;
-Besides Lillard, Portland is also without Powell whose 20 PRA will have to go somewhere.

C.J.McCollum PRA [34.5] over 1u bet365@1.86; POR

-No Lillard most likely and maybe no Powell as well. Without Lillard last season he had PRA of 38, 34, 37 and 34.
-When Lillard isn't playing, Gollum is looking at a 7.3% increase in usage rate, for 31.5 in total, and for someone who should play close to 40 minutes if there is no blowout, this should be enough to score around 25 points and get rest of this line trough rebounds and assists.

T.Horton-Tucker PRA [20.5] under 0.5u bet365@1.86; LAL

-Basing on the fact that LeBron on Sunday said that he will be playing today. That would make Horton-Tucker play less than 30 minutes today.
-When Lebron is playing he is averaging PRA of 13.7 in 28 minutes played, while in 3 games without Lebron he had over 32 PRA.