- 24 Jan 2021, 00:19
N.Jokic [21.5] over 1.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; DEN
Starting with 1.8 on Tab- he is on lower odds on other bookies or higher margin;
-He is averaging 25.5 points this season! 4 more than this margin.
-He has only 4 unders in 15 games;
-He already played yesterday against the Suns and managed to score 27 in the regular time (31 total);
J.Grant PRA [30.5] over 2u email@example.com; DET
(firstname.lastname@example.org at 32.5; if you take this one don't play more than 1.5);
-Averages PRA of 35.6 since the second game;
-No Griffin and no Rose so Grant will be able to do whatever he wants, and will probably end up taking huge number of shots, maybe even around 25.
-Without Griffin he moves to 4 so it should be easier for him to get a rebound or two more than what he gets usually. He should also pick up more assists as Griffin plays the point forward which averages more than 4 assists;
-It is a B2B game for Grant, just like it is for Phila, but Grant is a young stud that who doesn't have issues with b2b sets- in the first set he played 38 and then 37 (two days before it he played 43 against Cleveland)/ In the second set he played 34 minutes in each of the two games.
-With Griffin out he might have to play few minutes more, and with the increased usage rate, anything bellow 20 shots will be surprising; add to that 7-8 rebounds and few assists, and he should easily get PRA of 30+ even if he plays only 3 quarters.
-BO shouldn't happen as Phila might be without Embiid. He didn't played in second half of B2B sets, and it seems like he has small back issues... but even if BO happens, Grant plays full first and third quarter so he should play 30+ minutes even with a huge blowout.
D.Wright PRA [18.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; DET
-Started the season by mostly playing from the bench. If we exclude the game against Cavs, he was averaging less than 20 minutes per game. Then Hayes got injured and Wright was starting.
-Detroit doesn't have a real PG, so they are using Wright as one, which increases his usage rate because he plays much more with the ball.
-Since Hayes got injured, Wright is starting and averaging 28.5 minutes per game which is a huge boost.
-Reason to take him today is that Rose and Griffin are out.
-Griffin being out should increase Wright's usage rate by a decent amount, and so should Rose being out, but what is more important about Rose missing this game is that Wright should end up playing more, probably over 30 minutes (around 35 minutes if the game is close);
-Since starting he is averaging a PRA of close to 16 in 28 minutes played. With a big increase in playing time and also a bigger usage rate, he should probably get to 20 or higher.
W.Elington [9.5] over 1.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; DET
(tipico 9,5; 1.9$; If you have Tipico play him on 2 units); he is 11.5 on bf/sb with normal odds (1u bet), and others have him on 11.5 with lower odds on over, so a really nice value here.
-He is already averaging 11.4 points in 21.7 minutes played on average (has a game where he played less than 1 min). In the last 4 games he played almost 30 on average, and averaged almost 17 points;
-If we exclude the game where he played less than 1 minute, his points average is 12.6, so already above this line.
-He is starting, there is no Griffin and no Rose, so he should get few more looks than usual, and at the same time he should play more as Pistons besides him and Wright don't have a real guard who isn't on two-way contract.
M.Beasley alt points [20+] over 1u email@example.com; MIN
M.Beasley rebounds [5.5] under 0.5u firstname.lastname@example.org; MIN
-You can also play him 20.5 over on points for 0.75, but if you have Neds or lads go and play him there under player points market "to score 20+". Odds will surely go down soon.
-There is no Russell today and Rubio should come back. Beasley should be taking more shots, could easily end up taking 20 today, and he should also get better looks as Rubio is a better passer and creator than Russell will ever be;
-Regarding the rebounds: He is averaging 4.4 this season; Has 5 overs in 14 games (interestingly, 2 of the overs were when Towns played, and in the other two games he had 4 rebounds); If BO happens, it will help more (I am not counting on BO because of the points bet, but we should be able to see two wins here even with blowout;
J.Brunson [13.5] over 0.75 email@example.com; DAL
-Playing well since starting- 31, 13 (blowout), 19 and 16 points and playing around 35 minutes on average if there are no blowouts (27-28 in blowout games)
-Averages 12.5 points this season while playing only 22 minutes on average, so with a 40-50% increase in playing time, he should also average at least 2-3 points more;
-Good opponent for over. With Wall playing for Houston there should be more running and more chances for Brunson from transition.
J.Wall PRA [32.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; HOU
-He was averaging PRA of 28.5 this season while playing 34 minutes on average;
-In each of those 7 games Harden played, and Wood played in 6 of those;
-With Harden being traded away, and Oladipo not playing tonight, Wall should be very busy in the offense. Will probably end up taking around 20 shots, and also getting around 10+ RA.
-We are going with only 1u as there is a decent chance of blowout, so we want to play it safer;
D.Cousins PRA [26.5] over 0.75u email@example.com; HOU
-I was choosing between him and Gordon for today, and while I expect Gordon to also score 20+ points and go over, I don't want to have 3 players form same team and be scared of blowout;
-I took Cousins because he managed to play 33 minutes yesterday, and that's a good sign. This season he is averaging 15.3 PRA in 15 minutes played, so roughly 1 pra per minute played.
-Yesterday he had PRA of 27, but what is important- he took 16 shots! He managed to mix almost all of them, but that shouldn't happen again as he is a decent 3pt shooter for a center, and also has a good midrange.
-Even with his injury history, he is way stronger than Porzingis or WCS and can bully them in the post if he chooses to do so.
J.Wiseman PT+Reb [17.5] under 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; GSW
-He is averaging PR of 17.5 this season, but has only 6 overs in 15 games played;
-Today he is going against Gobert who is the best defender on C position, so Wiseman should be having a bellow average game today, so if average is right on the margin, he should stay under;
-Funny thing there is that if you have Neds, you can play a very nice middle: he is on 16.5 PRA there and he can surely dish an assist or two, meaning that you effectively have a 3 points difference.
K.Olynyk PRA [19.5] under 0.75 email@example.com; MIA
-Averaging PRA of 18.5 this season in 28 minutes played. If we exclude the two games without Adebayo, it goes down to 17.5;
-Last 4 games since Adebayo is playing, Olynik is on 24,25, 28 and 21 minutes, getting PRAs of 8, 15, 29 and 4.
-Durant is coming back for Nets, fresh, and Nets are huge favorites here so there is a big chance for a blowout in which case Olynyk would play even less