-Going against poor defense, fast pace, many points and reobunds allowed to centers. No Sabonis so more minutes for Turner. Brogdon is also out and Turner was recently bitching about being a glorified role player- he won't get a better chance that today to prove that he is worth something.
F.Wagner PRA [25.5] over 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; ORL
-Did us so much good recently can't skip him. Cole is back, but the margin is also 5 points smaller and he should get better looks with Cole pulling attention to himself. He is going against poor defense with terrible defense on C (No Vala).
J.Embiid PRA [42.5] over 0.75u email@example.com; PHI
-After coming back from covid he is playing superbly, averaging PRA of almost 45 per game.
-Today he will go against Atlanta without Capela, so their defense inside should be worse than normally. If he forces Dieng into PF trouble, Embiid will be feasting in the post.
-Lower bet because this could easily be a blowout.
C.LeVert PT+AS [28.5] over 1.33u firstname.lastname@example.org; IND
(pra 33.5 also fine, but I like this more)
-High margin considering that LeVert averages PRA of 22.5 in per 30 minutes per game, but Indiana is today without Sabonis and Brogdon. LeVert will play way more with the ball in his hands and he should have huge usage rate. He should be taking 20+ shots and also getting more assists.
-Going against fast paced team with the second worst defense helps a lot. Also, without Brogdon and Sabonis this doesn't look like blowout as originally expected.
L.James PRA [41.5] over 1.75u uni/888@1,82; LAL
(expected 42.5 and I am fine with 1.25u on that line)
-Without Davis he is averaging PRA of 44.4 per 38 minutes (which is what he usually plays); When Westbrook is not on the floor (and for about third of LeBron's playing time that will be the case), Lebron has usage rate of over 35% and is expected to get half of this PRA line during those minutes.
-Bookies don't have a clear favorite for this game, so it should be somewhat close and James should play good minutes. Match up shouldn't be too hard and it's a big plus that Spurs play with a lot of pace, so its easier to get PRAs.
Last two games he had 51 against Bulls and 43 against Phoenix in a 3 minutes blowout which was alsoa low scoring game with only 90 points for Lakers. Today they are projected to 113. Also easier match up.
-Without Davis this season he had PRAs of 50 (OT), 44 in big blowout, 51, 51 and 43 in blowout and hard match up.
-I am only worried about big BO happening.
R.Westbrook [36.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; LAL
-He will play a lot today without both James and Davis. When that's the case he is averaging PRA of 43.8 per 36 minutes. He is averaging around 36 PRA per 36 minutes and today, if the game is close enough, he should play closer to 40.
-Spurs play with faster pace so it should be easier to get more PRAs.
-Last two games (without Davis) he had PRA of 37 in 38 minutes and 37 in 37 minutes.
-In the last two games where NYK were without Rose, Barrret, McBride and Quickley, Fournier played over 40 min in each. I believe he will still play big minutes despite Grimes coming back so this 22 should be easy for him.
-Last two games since Rose isn't playing he had PRA of 40 and 27. In the game where Rose went down he had PRA of 27 in just 28 minutes.
S.Dinwiddie PRA [25.5] over 1.33u firstname.lastname@example.org; WAS
-Plays like crap recently, but when Beal is not on the floor he is showing some magic because in games without Beal he has PRA of 49, 40, 41. Today is a great chance to have a good game because he is the guy that benefits the most when Beal isn't on the floor as his usage rate increases by 10% and he averages PRA of 35.5 per 36 minutes.
-I am only scared of blowout. He might start shooting poorly, but Spencer is not a guy that stops shooting just because of few misses and I expect him to take close to 20 shots if the game is close till the end.
-Before when Beal didn't played the lines were at 29.5-30.5;
-I would go 1.75u here if there wasn't for the recent slump+harder opponent.
J.Holiday PRA [31.5] over 2u email@example.com; MIL
(on others 32.5 and thats fine as well, I didn't expect 31.5);
-He averages PRA of 39.1 per 36 minutes with Giannis not on the floor. When Middleton also isn't on the floor (that will happen for like 10-12 minutes at least) Holiday is averaging almost 44 PRA. And all this is without taking in consideration that there is no Portis.
-Last 3 games without Giannis he had PRa of 44 in big blowout, 50 in OT and 38 against Houston.
-Easy match up.
-I am only scared of blowout, but it shouldn't happen with no Giannis and Dallas playing at home.
K.Middleton PRA [30.5] over 1.33u firstname.lastname@example.org; MIL
(email@example.com -31.5 there)
-He has crazy numbers without Giannis on the floor.
-Last game in bad blowout against Houston he was barely over, but tonight' game should be more equal especially if Porzingis plays.
D.Cousins PRA [23.5] over 1.33u firstname.lastname@example.org; MIL
(he was 24.5 on higher others before dropping to this, I am more than fine with 24.5 as well, just do 1.25u instead)
-Bucks are without centers (except Cousins) with Lopez, Portis and Mamukelashvili not playing.
-Last two games he played 27 and 28 minutes and was over on both games with PRa of 25 and 28, but both games were heavy blowouts.
-Opponent should be easier today as Dallas is very poor in defending against centers.
-Only real danger- BO or injury.
N.Jokic PRA [47.5] over 0.66u email@example.com; DEN
-Easy opponent, Denver has to Win. Fast apced game, Hornets allowing a lot of poitns and reboudns to centers. If there is no BO (shouldn't be) and Jokic gets his minutes, he should go over 50 PRA.