-Horford is back, but Celtics are now without Kanter and Fernando. He is supposed to play big minutes, something similar to the game against Bucks where he played 39 minutes.
-Last game he had PRa of 19 in 22 minutes played- he was having big PF issues which costed him maybe even 15 minutes (left early in the first quarter, then left after several minutes in second quarter, and left the floor right at the start of the third quarter). With normal playing time, and the way he is recently playing he should do good today.
-Having Horford on 4 instead of Tatum could be a small plus because Horford is less agressive when going on for defensive rebounds.
M.Morris PRA [23.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; LAC
-In last 5 games with PG13 not playing, Morris is averaging PRA of 28 per game. In 4 of those Jackson played. He has 4/5 overs on this line.
-With no PG13 and Jackson, Morris should have a much bigger role and I expect him to take a good amount of shots while also grabbing good amount of rebounds and having several assists.
-Last game he had PRA of 35 while playing only 27 minutes and not stepping on the floor in the last quarter because of blowout.
E.Bledsoe PRA [25.5] over 1.5u firstname.lastname@example.org; LAC
-Because Clippers are without several players, Bledsoe is starting and should be playing a good amount of time while also having a good usage rate and handle the ball more. Last 3 games since starting, he had PRAs of 34, 30 and 23 (big blowout, he didn't played in the last quarter).
-The only danger I see here is a blowout, but if there isn't one, Bledsoe should be playing 36-37 minutes and that should be enough for a primary ball handler with 25% usage rate to go over. Last time we had PRA line of 27.5 (which he would go over if not for the BO), so getting 2 points better line is surely a great thing.
J.Brown PRA [37.5] over 1.5u email@example.com; BOS
-We played him on 39.5, won that bet, and ofc we are going with him again at 2 points lower margin.
-He is playing well since coming back from being injury (cov1d or whatever it was) and despite starting with his playing time being monitored, he still managed to average 34.4 minutes and get average PRA of 35 per game. That's with Tatum playing in most of the games.
-Today, Boston is playing without many players, but for us, two more important ones are Tatum and Schroder. These two ball hogs average close to 70 PRA per game together, and that PRA needs to go somewhere. Brown should benefit a lot as per 36 minutes without these two he is having usage rate of 35% and PRA of 42.5 (smaller sample). If we look at just time spent without Tatum on the floor, then his average PRA per 36 minutes becomes 42. What is good is that he plays more than 36 minutes in normal games, so in the last game against Minnesota he played 39 minutes.
J.Brunson PRA [31.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; DAl
(32.5 at high odds (1.91 or higher) is fine as well at same units).
-No Doncic, no THJ. Brunson should be playing big amount of time today and be the main attacking option together with Porzingis.
-Opponent is great for over, fast pace, poor defense, easy match up and no blowout expected.
K.Porzingis PRA [35.5] over 1u email@example.com; DAL
-This dude was balling in the recent games. Since Doncic is OUT, he is averaging PRA of 33.8 in 30.5 minutes which doesn't tell the whole story because of 6 games, in one he left early duo to an injury, one was a huge blowout and 3 were small blowouts. Basically he only had 3 normal games and in those he had PRAs of 38 and 39 against strong defense of Utah.
-What is very important here is that in the last 2 games Dallas was also without THJ (and are without him today as well) which seem to help Porzingis a lot because he is taking an even bigger share of offense, so in the last two games he had PRA of 39 and 47 (small blowout).
-Today's match up is great for over because of several reasons. Kings play with fast pace and poor defense. Over 220 points are projected here. Match up is super easy- I wouldn't trust Bagley with keeping an eye on his own shadow- he would probably lose it. Bookie project the game to be close, so small chance for blowout in their (and my) eyes.
S.Bey PRA [29.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; DET
(fine on 30.5, but do 0.8u instead);
-He is playing huge minutes lately duo to all the injuries and c0v1d cases and he also plays more on 4 so its easier for him to get the rebounds.
-Last 5 games he is averaging almost 40 minutes while averaging PRA of close to 32.
-Today Pistons will be again without Cunningham, so Bey should once again be having a nice usage rate. In 3 games without Cunningham he had PRAs of 32, 38 and 30.
-Pistons will also be without some other players whose absence would help Bey, like for example, Joseph or Lyles.
L.Garza PRA [18.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; DET
-Pistons are without all their centers and most of their PFs. Olynyk didn't played this season and Stewart and Lyles are OUT. Garza is the only center left standing so he should be looking at a big playing time no matter the result. They signed a new center on 10 days hardship contract but Garza is the one that should be looking at around 35 minutes if everything is ok.
-Last game he had PRa of 28 but he played only 20 minutes because he fouled out.
-Opponent isn't great for over, but being a starting center who is expected to play big minutes today is good enough for me.
L.James PRA [43.5] over 1.66u firstname.lastname@example.org; LAL
(He is 45.5 on Sb/bf which is more realistic line.. I would play him even on 44.5 but for lower stake).
-So let's do this again- without Davis, he is having these PRAs: 44 (big blowout), 51, 51, 43 (big blowout), 51 (big blowout), 55 and 54. So generally he goes over when playing full games, and sometimes even without that.
-Memphis plays with a faster pace which should help with this over.
-Lakers are in a very bad spot with 17-18 wins, and every game matters a lot so I believe that James won't move his leg from the gas pedal and that he will try to win this one as well.
-Only potential danger is possible blowout which I hope won't happen. Memphis is 6 points favorite here.
-Last 5 games (two blowouts) he is averaging PRA of 51.
R.Westbrook PRA [35.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; LAL
(fine on 36.5 for 1u, or 0.75u on 37.5 but only if odds are good).);
-Great line, considering I expected 37.5 and was ready to play it on it as well.
-Everything I said yesterday applies today as well. He should be fired up because of recent controversy, opponents play with faster pace, and now we also have a better line than yesterday (when he had PRA of 46)?
-Memphis is the worst team when it comes to defending against PGs.
-Same with Lebron- BO is a potential issue as Memphis is playing good, but lakers are also chasing PO so hopefully they will fight until last few minutes.
C.Reddish PRA [25.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; ATL
-With so many players not available for Atlanta, Reddish should end up playing a lot today (he has two 40+ minutes in last 4 games) and he should be the second attacking option behind Young which should result in him taking plenty of shots but also handling the ball more, so more assists than usual.
C.Capela PRA [28.5] over 0.75u email@example.com; ATL
-He is the only healthy big in Atlanta after Dieng entered the protocols. There is also no Collins or Okongwo. Capela should be playing good amount of time today and it should be easier to rebound, especially in defense with the second tallest guy being Reddish.
J.Clarkson PRA [27.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; UTA
(If you wait for bet365 you should probably get 26.5 line);
-No Mitchell. Clarkson benefits a lot with higher usage rate and increased playing time.
-Last game without Mitchell he had PRA of 36. In the only other game without Mitchell- he had PRA of 37.
T.Rozier PRA [25.5] over 0.75u uni/all@1,89; CHA
-He is averaging 25 PRA this season. I expect him to have an above average game because Bridges and Washington are OUT. That's around 50 PRA which needs to go somewhere.
-Without Bridges, he is averaging PRA of 29.4 per 36 minutes.
-Match up should be Levert, so from Hornet's main starting 3 (Ball, Rozier, Hayward) he should have the easiest match up.
-Close game projected with 226 points.
-Last game (no Bridges), Rozier had PRA of 36 in a big blowout against Houston.
J.McDaniels PRA [19.5] over 0.66u email@example.com; CHA
-No Bridges and no Washington. McDaniels should be looking at a big increase in playing time. He was playing 27-28 minutes per game with these 2 playing, but now with none of them playing he should be starting and playing around 35 minutes.
-Last game he started and had PRA of 22, but he played only 27 minutes duo to big blowout.
-Opponent is good as Indiana is the worst team when it comes to defending against PFs- they allow the most points in the entire league to power forwards.