Najjača košarkaška liga na svijetu i naša specijalnost :mrgreen:
User avatar
By nbaspecialtips
#156625 Sinoc opet esktra, 9/12.. iance zadnjih nekih 20 dana je bilo samo dva dana u minusu a prosjek je negdje oko 3u u plusu dnevno... Sto se tice foruma- da ne ispane da sam ljut ili tako nesto- meni bi bilo jako drago da je forum ziv i da radi, cak stavise, pitao sam knighta za prodaju pa da ga ja probam aktivirat i monetizovan na neki nacin da opstane i raste (s obzirom jelte da imam van foruma dosta pratioca). Jedini razlog sto prestajen objavljivat kao i do sad je jer radim sa premium grupom (od sutra) i nije u redu prema onima koji placaju da objavljujem sve negdje na forumu, pgotovo javnom. Bice moze jedan post svaki dan od mene, al ne vise ovoliko mnogo odjednom. Zivili

B.Beal PRA [39.5] over 1u uni/all@2.0; WAS

(he is on this line everywhere, but at some places with worse odds- if odds are lower than 1.9 play just 0.75u).
-Without Spencer Dinwiddie, Beal had these PRAs: 45 (big BO), 34 (huge BO, hard defense), 40, 38, 41 (small BO, hard match up) and 43.
-Besides Spencer, Wizards are also without Harrell, Holiday, neto, Bertans, Wanamaker and others. In the last game, before the game stopped being competitive, Wizards were only using 8 players, so Beal should end up playing close to 40 today if there is no blowout.
-Opponent was hard for over when Ball and Caruso were playing, but because both of them are OUT, it should be much easier than usual.
-Bulls are small favorites but blowout isn't expected.

D.Gafford PRA [23.5] over 0.75u uni/all@1.89; WAS

-No Harrell, Bryant, Bertans and Hachimura. Gafford is starting and should be playing 36-37 minutes if everything is OK. He is currently averaging PRA of 17.1, and with 60% increase in playing time you would expect him to get around 27-28 PRA.
-Last game against Cavs he stopped at 21 but mostly thanks to blowout (he played only 32 minutes.
-Stats say that Bulls allow a lot of rebounds to opponent's centers- the third worst team in the league when it comes to this, and they are also bellow average when it comes to number of points allowed.

J.Holiday PRA [30.5] over 1.33u uni@1.89; MIL

-Bucks are playing without Middleton. While they are a big favorites to win today, they didn't played too well recently, so I believe that Pelicans can be somewhat competitive until mid 4th quarter so Holiday should get his 30+ minutes;
-When Middleton is off the floor, Holiday gets the biggest increase in usage rate- around 10%. Per 36 minutes without Middleton, he is averaging PRA of 35.5, but he will today also get at least around 30% of his playing time without Giannis, and when both Giannis and Middleton are off the floor, Holiday is averaging PRA of 43.2 per 36 min.

D.Graham PRA [21.5] over 1u unibet@1.83; MIL

-Uni is sleeping- he is 23.5 on other bookies. No Ingram, no Valanciunas. Expected blowout, but he should go over within 3 quarters.
-Hart on 26.5+ also seems like good choice.


M.Morris PRA [26.5] over 1.25u bet365/all@1.9; LAC

-He looks like a first attacking option for Clippers, and at the same time he is playing a lot because Clippers are without Batum, Hartenstein and Zubac. He also spends time on C so its easier for him to get the rebounds.
-Opponent is hard, that's why we are going with 1.25u only (would be higher otherwise).

D.White AS [7.5] over 0.75u uni/all@1.89; SAS

-Since Murray isn't playing, White is the primary ball handler and creator which resulted in him having 10 assists against Detroir, 8 against Utah and 9 against Memphis.


S.Bey PRA [33.5] over 1.33u uni/bet365; DET

-Since Grant went down, he scored 20 points in all except one game (going against decent defense, finishing with 15). He is averaging roughly 35.7 PRA per game... but it gets better- he played over 40 minutes in each of last 3 games despite one huge blowout, simply because- there is no one to play. Without Cunningham he had PRAs of 38, 32 and 44.
-Pistons are playing at home, against a team which runs a lot- Spurs are the 4th fastest team in the NBA, so it should make it much easier to get PRAs.

L.Garza PRA [22.5] over 1.33u uni/sb/bf@1.89; DET

-Even though he was a fail last time, it confirmed what was written in the analysis- he has to play a lot whatever happens. Against Spurs first time in a heavy blowout he played only 20 minutes because he fouled out (had PRA of 28 though), but then against NYK he played 39 minutes.
-Pistons are without all of their bigs (and more), so they don't have Lyles, Olynyk, Stewart and they are also without Grant, Cunningham, Jackson 1, Jackson 2, Joseph etc...Garza will have to play as much as possible.
-Spurs are currently the 5th worst team when it comes to points allowed to centers and the 6th worst when it comes to rebounds allowed. They play with faster pace which helps with getting those easy def rebounds because of more possesions.
-Even if this is blowout, it shouldn't hurt Garza's minutes because someone simply has to play and he is their only center (and he is not as important to not be playing garbage time).

H.Diallo PRA [32.5] over 1u uni/sb/bf@1.89; DET

(31.5 on 1.71 on bet365, that one point isn't worth the difference in odds, but if you want extra safety for less value- go for it).
-One of the guys that is also set to play big minutes today duo to Pistons playing without 11 players. Last 3 games he played 39, 39 and 34 minutes, but if there wasn't for PF issues, he would have probably played around 40 on average.
-Opponent is good for over, fast paced team, so it should be easier to get PRA. Alternative to this bet is points over 21.5, but because I think he should play around 40 minutes (maybe even 41-43min) I think PRA should be better.
-He should be playing even if there is a blowout, just like he did against the Spurs first time (finishing with 33 PRA).

F.Campazzo PRA [19.5] over 0.75u bet365/all@1.8; DEN

-Was planning to play Barton, but his line is too high. Campazzo will be starting because Denver is without several players, for him most important being Monte Morris and Hyland. He should be looking at 30+ minutes like in the last game (which was a low scoring game with only 89 points for GSW);
-Opponent is great for over today- Denver is playing against Houston: fast-paced team with very poor defense and 225 points projected (out of which Denver is projected to score around 115).

K.Porter PRA [25.5] over 1u bet365@1.86; HOU

-He is averaging around 24 PRA this season while playing 30 minutes on average. Last few games show that he will be playing more, as he played 35 min against Lakers and then 30 against Miami but he had PF issues and fouled OUT, so he would probably play around 35 in that game as well.
-Denver is a 6 favorite, but Houston is playing at home so this should be a competitive game, at least until last 4-5 minutes.
-Taking this because Denver is also having injury problems, so they will end up playing Campazzo and Rivers on 1 and most likely, which should mean that porter and green should have easy match ups in offense, while Wood should have issues with Jokic on both ends of the floor.