J.Valanciunas PRA [32.5] over 2.25u firstname.lastname@example.org; NOP
-He averages PRA of 34.1 this season in 31 minutes played on average per game, but its very important to say that he plays around 35-36 in normal games (like for example there were several big blowouts where he played in low 20s which lower his average numbers- 22 Utah, 24 Wizards, 19 MInnesota, 23 Indiana etc).
-He is going against one of the weakest teams when it comes to defense against centers so Valanciunas should be having a good game.
-Blowout isn't expected, so we can hope for a long game. What's great about Valanciunas is that with the way he is playing now, he can easily go over even in just 3 quarters if he gets his thing going on.
C.Wood PRA [33.5] over 1.33u email@example.com; HOU
-34.5 on others;
-Once again, this is a game where both teams can play until end and are expected to do so which doesnt often happen with OKC and Houston. In the last game we saw a small blowout, and Wood played 31 minutes in which he had PRA of 45 even though he palyed 2-3 minutes less than he would otherwise.
-OKC is very bad when it comes to defense against tall positions- they will be without Favors and they will probably be starting with Robinson-Early and also be playing Muscala/Roby as back up- neither of these is even close to be an average defender so Wood should have a good game.
-Wood also benefits from Green not playing- he has PRA of 42+ per 36min
K.Porter Jr PRA [28.5] over 1.33u firstname.lastname@example.org; HOU
-There is no Green or Augustin and close game is expected. In this case Porter becomes one of the best bets for several reasons:
Most importantly, Porter is having issues playing with Green- they both want/need the ball and that results with Porter doing worse when Green is on the floor. When Green isn't playing Porter's usage rate increases by whole 5% which leads to ~3 points more per 36 minutes, but more importantly it also results in more than 3 rebounds more and also almost 2 assists more. All that together is roughly 8 PRA and Porter is already averaging PRA of 27 in 32 minutes played, and even that number is lower duo to all the blowouts. In a normal game he should be playing 35-36.
-Last two games without Green. Porter had PRA of 43 and 32. What is very important is he had a nice usage rate which obviously resulted in higher number of shots taken- 16 and 17 instead of 12.8 he takes on average, but besides that he also had more rebounds and assists.
G.Matthews PRA [15.5] over 0.75u email@example.com; HOU
-With Green not playing new opportunities openned for Matthews and Brooks (pra 12.5+). Both looking like decent picks but I went with Matthews because in the last 3 games (without Green) he had PRa of 18, 23 and 22. He is playing well over 30 minutes per game without Green (and now without Augustin as well) so he should be on the floor very often and take good number of shots. Most shots are 3s and he is hitting them with around 40% hit rate which is super good.
K.A.Towns PRA [39.5] over 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; MIN
-Basing this on the fact that Edwards have flu-like symptoms because of which Vanderbilt missed the last game and because the last game was just 2 days ago, I now expect that Edwards will miss this game.
-Without Edwards everyone benefits a lot- there is a 7.6% usage rate increase for Towns and also 1.4 more assists per 36 minutes. Overall, without Edwards he is taking 20 shots per game together with 8 fts per 36 min on average, and is averaging PRA of 44.1 PRA.
K.Huerter PRA [18.5] over 1u email@example.com; ATL
-He should be starting today and when he is starting he is averaging PRA of 19.5 in 29 minutes played on average. Today, he should be playing even more because besides Hunter, Atlanta is also missing Bogdanovic, and there is a very decent chance that Reddish won't be playing either. Last game Bogdanovic and Redish started, but both left the game duo to injuries and Hunter ended up playing 38 minutes. In the only game this seasonw here both Bogdanovic and Hunter weren't playing, Huerter played 39 minutes, so I think its safe to assume that he will be playing well above 30 minutes, most likely 35+. If Reddish is out and game is close he should be flirting with 40 minutes mark.
-Per 36 minutes he is producing almost 22 PRA and that's enough for me to take him.
-Also Indiana is without Holiday and Huerter will be going against LeVert and Duarte, neither of them good defenders.
Idem opet sa njim, nemam tu šta puno dodati, mašina za poene, večeras tekma protiv Wizards-a koje svaki centar ubija, posebno kada je Harrell u igri.
U formi je, zadnje 3 tekme lagano preko ove granice, igra odlučno kao i kompletna ekipa Wolves-a, vjerujem da večeras nastavlja 25+ ritmu.
Kao što sam prošli put rekao, on je sam sebi najveći protivnik zbog konstantnih problema sa faulovima, za svoju punu minutažu ova granica je smiješna ma ko bio matchup, Gafford ga ne može nikako napuniti sa faulovima, jedino u tim nekim preuzimanjima Beal i Dinwiddie iz prodora al’ vjerujem da će večeras ipak biti malo pametniji i konačno završiti tekmu bez 6 ličnih.
-PG13 is OUT;
-Jackson is averaging PRA of 25 in 33.6 minutes, but if this ends up being a close game I think he will be playing close to 36-37 minutes;
-His average PRA per 36 min without PG13 is 34.7; He gets a 10% increased usage rate when George isn't on the floor, and besides that he also grabs more rebounds and gets more assists;
-Kings play with bad defense overall and they allow plenty of points on 1-2;
-Morris and Bledsoe should also go over their PRA lines, but RJ seems like the best choice out of 3.
D.Fox PRA [29.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; SAC
-Kings are without Barnes and Bagley.
-Fox is averaging 29.1 with two of them playing so without them he should doing much better as the first attacking option;
-Clippers are terrible in defense against PGs- they are like the 4th worst team when it comes to that.
R.Holmes PRA [24.5] over 1u email@example.com; SAC
He is 25.5 elsewhere;
-He benefits a lot from Bagley not playing. Not only that there is a big difference in scoring when Bagley isn't on the floor (Holmes is averaging 20 points per 30 min without him) but there is a huge difference in rebounding- Holmes is averaging 7 rebounds more per 36 min without Bagley.
-Holmes is already averaging PRA of over 26 while playing 27 minutes. If we also add that I expect him to play 33-34 if there is no blowout, this seems lieka great bet as well.
K.Lowry PRA [30.5] over 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; MIA
-No Butler and Adebayo.
-Without Butler (and with Adebayo in 3 of those 4 games) Lowry had PRa of 33, 31, 25, 33.
-He should have an easy match up against Garland, while Hero will be chased around by defensive specialist Okoro who only has a one duty and that is to defend (which why Cavs are one of the worst in defense of PGs, while they are the best in defense against SGs, because SGs are by default guarded by Okoro).
J.Allen PRA [27.5] over 0.75u email@example.com; CLE
-He is playing like a monster since coming back from the injury- playing 36-38 minutes per game and averaging PRA of 38.3 in those 4;
-Opponent is not bad, actually opposite, but Miami is without their starting center- Adebayo, and I think that because of that Allen should continue his nice run and get another 30ish PRA game.
-Game is projected to be close because Miami is without it's two stars.
S.Gilgeous-ALexander PRA [33.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; OKC
-Averages 30 PRA in 34.8 minutes but in close games obviously plays more than that, closer to 40 most of the time and tonight's game should be close.
-When Giddey isn't playing SGA is the one to benefit the most with increase of 10% in usage rate and 9.6 more points and 2.3 more rebounds for a 38 PRA per 36 minutes played;
-Close game expected here (a rare occasion for OKC/Hou) so he should play good minutes and with huge usage rate+ being the only real playmaker, he should get to 35+ PRA without too many issues.