Najjača košarkaška liga na svijetu i naša specijalnost :mrgreen:
User avatar
By nbaspecialtips
#156499 C.Cunningham PRA [30.5] over 1.25u bet365@1.8; DET

-He is 31.5 on others- if you take him there, make sure its a lower bet but also that the odds are closer to 2.0 than 1.8;
-First ten gmaes of the season he was shooting poorly, playing only 30 minutes and averaging 24 PRA. Last 10 games the situation is different and he is averaging PRA of around 27.5;
-Pistons are now without Grant who has same usage rate as Cunningham, and without him, you expect Cade to do much more in offense- not only in scoring but to also get more rebounds and assists.
-Without Grant, he is averaging PRA of 33 per 36 min this season.
-Great game for over- Houston is playing with the fastest pace in the league and they have a pretty poor defense, so there should be many more points for Detroit than usual and also- bookies expect a close game, and I think we won't see a big blowout, so Cade should be playing good minutes, and with being the first attacking option, plus the main ball handler, he should get 30+ PRA.

E.Gordon PRA [22.5] over 1u uni/bet365@1.98; HOU

-Houston is again without plenty of important players, but most importantly- all people that play on 1 and 2, so Gordon should be starting and playing good minutes today.
-Opponent is good for over as Pistons play with faster pace and bellow average defense. Blowout isn't epxected as this should be a long/close game.
-Since Porter went down, Gordon is averaging PRA of 26 in 31.3 minutes played;
User avatar
By nbaspecialtips
#156502 J.Holiday PRA [36.5] over 2u sb/bf/bet365@1.85; MIL

-No Giannis, Portis, Middleton and plenty of others.
-Per 36 minutes without these two, Holiday is averaging PRA of 42.8; If we are looking at time when Portis also isn't on the floor (100 min sample), Holiday is averaging PRA of 48.4 per 36 min! Crazy numbers, but not surprising when you know that he has a huge usage rate without these guys.
-In the last two games without Giannis and Middleton, he averaged PRA of 47 in 38 minutes. He is simply taking most of the shots when he is on the floor and these two aren't (and Portis not playing makes it even better).
-To make it even better- Cleveland is without Okoro who is their defense guy for these situations- Garland is bellow average defender and Cedi Osman who will probably start instead of him had an operation when he was a baby- doctors surgically removed defense from his brain so he won't be stopping Holiday either.

J.Allen PRA [32.5] over 0.75u bet365@1.9; CLE

-If we don't count the last game, he is averaging PRA of 34.3 since coming back off injury. In close game he is playing 37-38 minutes.
-Today he is going against Bucks who are without Giannis, Lopez and Portis so they are really lacking on center position and will be starting Cousins. Allen should be having an easy game today.
-Mobley being out is a small plus as well.



R.Williams PRA [20.5] over 1u uni/all@1.89; BOS

-Same thing as yesterday. Boston is without Horford, Hernangomez, Parker, G. Williams, Hauser, Schroder and maybe Langford as well.
-Williams will be starting and should play huge minutes- probably more than 35;
-Yesterday he finished with 19 PRA in 37 minutes but he wasn't rebounding that well in defense and he also managed to shoot just 50% (he is 73% for the season) and also to miss 4 Fts;
-Yesterday it was one of the main bets, but today we are going with smaller stake because of huge increase in the line.
-He is averaging PRA of 18.3 this season and is expected to play extra 30% minutes today.


Next 5 games are overs from the same game. All bets are good. Blowout is a danger, but on individual basis- all these singles have good value and over long term playing these bets will bring us money. Both teams are without plenty of players and there isn't a super clear favorite, so this, I hope, will be a close game until last 3-4 min.

G.Harris PRA [20.5] over 1.25u sb/bf@1.95; ORL

-He is on higher line on other bookies;
-Orlando is without even more players today. Harris will be playing on PG should have big usage rate, even better than before because WCR is also OUT;
-Yesterday he has a harder match up and went against overall better defense and the team with the slowest pace in the league and he still managed to come to 26 PRA. Today he will be going against poor defense and a very fast paced team.

F.Wagner PRA [30.5] over 1.25u sb/bf@1.87; ORL

-Everything I said about Harris applies to Wagner as well. He is now the first attacking option for Orlando and could easily take 20-ish shots today and go several times to FT line. Last game he had PRA of 37 while missing all of his 3s.
-He will play a lot, so he should be also getting more rebounds and assists than usual. He will go against fast paced team with poor defense.

R.Lopez PRA [22.5] over 1u sb/bf@1.82; ORL

-Lopez is the only center that Orlando has. He will be starting and playing good minutes. Last game he had PRA of 28 in 33 minutes against good defense of Miami and also very important- WCR played int he first part of the game and wont be playing today, so Lopez should get some extra minutes. Today, he is going against Team which also has issues with not having most of players available so I would assume their defense on C should be worse because it will be played by a guy with no NBA experience and when he isn't on the floor, Lopez should be going against undersized Griffin.
-Should be playing even with blowout.

P.Mills PRA [27.5] over 1.33u bet365/sb/bf@1.95; BKN

-Very high margin, odds partially make up for it;
-Nets are a walking c0v*d ward. They will have normal 2 players for today, 2 rookies, some undrafted guys and they added some arena stuff to the mix, so in total they have 8-9 players. Only two players than can expect to produce well today are Mills and Griffin.
-Mills will be the main ball handler and should have the highest usage rate and should be on his way to a career high. Not only that he should be taking plenty of shots like he did against Toronto (took 20, Durant was playing) but he will also be playmaking, so he should get more assists, and with a big playing time, he should also get more rebounds.
-Going against one of the worst defenses in the league can only be a plus.

B.Griffin PRA [26.5] over 1u bet365@1.8; BKN

-Nets will have 8-9 active players if CLaxton is OUT. There is a decent chance they will only have Sharpe center, and Griffin as only other player capable of playing on 5. Griffin should be looking at good playing time and also with an increased usage rate because he is the only good player next to Mills on this team. Also being on C should bring more easy defensive rebounds.
-He is going against bad defense which can only be a plus.
User avatar
By nbaspecialtips
#156503 R.Jackson PRA [28.5] over 1.25u bet/all@1.9; LAC

-PG13 is doubtful for today so Jackson should be stepping up. He is a ball-hog anyways, so with the first option not playing he should end up with a huge usage rate and I can easily see him taking around 20 shots today.
-OKC plays with faster pace and that should help.

G.Payton PRA [20.5] over 1u uni/bet365/sb/bf@1.89; GSW

-Averages PRA of 10 in 14 minutes played on average. Today he should be playing a lot- over 30 minutes most likely and he should have a very good usage rate because he will be the main pointguard/playmaker as GSW is without Curry, Poole, Green, Wiggins and many others.

D.Mitchell PRA [35.5] over 0.75u sb/bf/bet365@1.83; UTA

-He is averaging PRA of 32.7 this season. There is no Conley today and he is going against bad defense. Without Conley he is taking more shots, but also very important- he is getting more rebounds and he assists more so per 36 minutes without Conley he has usage rate of 35% and PRA of 41.

J.Clarkson PRA [24.5] over 0.75u bet365@1.8; UTA

-No Conley. Ingles will move into starting line up and Clarkson will have a higher usage rate in the second unti and should have the ball more often in his hands leading to also more assists. He could easily end up taking around 20 or more shots today. Because Mitchell is starting and Conley isn't playing, Clarkson will be playing a big chunk of his time without both Conley and Mitchell, and stats say that per 36 min without those two he averages PRA of 36.2.

Patreon for all those that want to support the work, get notificaitons, write ups and other perks: https://www.patreon.com/bbspecialtips

Good luck!