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By nbaspecialtips
#156506 J.Poeltl PRA [22.5] over 1u bet365@1.8; SAS

-This was the line he had when going against the best defender in the league. Today it's the opposite- going against team with poor defense and fast pace (second fastest, 5th worst defense);
-Kings are also bad in stopping centers- they are the team that allows the most rebounds to centers and it is also in top 10 when it comes to points allowed.
-230 points is projected here;
-Poeltl is averaging PRA of 23.5 this season in 28.8 minutes, but inr ecent time if there is nothing unexpected, he tends to play over 30 minutes, closer to 33-34.

L.James PRA [42.5] over 1u sb/bf@1.81; LAL

-Lakers are without plenty of players, most importantly Davis. Someone needs to do something and that should be James because fo several reasons. Most importantly it's match ups- Westbrook will have hard time in offense against Ball and Caruso. Bulls don't have a proper PF, so James should ram his way in against DeRozna/Green, whoever is guarding him.

D.DeRozan PRA [38.5] over 1.5u uni/bet365@1.89; CHI

-Averages around 36 pra this season, but today Bulls will be without LaVine. If LaVine isn't on the floor, DeRozan is averaging PRA of 43 per 36 minutes. If Vucevic is also not on the floor, DeRozan has a close to 40% usage rate and PRA of 45; It's very important to say that he plays more than 36 minutes in close games.
-Lakers are second fastest team in the league and that should help as well.
-He was super motived last time against them because he didn't get to be signed to Lakers as they agreed on and despite LaVine playing, he managed to get 47 PRA in a blowout game.

L.Ball PRA [26.5] over 1u bet365/uni@1.8; CHI

-Last 3 games he was playing without DeRozan. Today it's without LaVine which should have similar impact. In those 3 games he he played 40 minutes in each;
-Lakers are playing with fast pace so that should help with everything. To make it better they are one of the worst teams when it comes to points and rebounds allowed to opponent's PGs.
-Going against team that drafted him and traded him away for AD. There might be a small personal motive. (in the last game against lakers with both Lavine and DeRozan playing, he had PRA of well above 40 in blowout game).

K.A.Towns PRA [39.5] over 2u uni/all@1.89; MIN

-He is averaging PRA of 37 in 34 minutes. In close games you would expect him to play closer to 40;
-Main reason for the bet is Edwards being out. That dude is a ballhog and everyone gets more when he isn't playing- for example, per 36 minutes without the ballhog on the floor, Towns is averaging PRA of 48.8 well above this line;
-Duo to Minnesota's rotations, Towns will also play a good amount of minutes without Russell on the floor so he should be extra productive during those.
-Dallas doesn't play with fast pace, but they are very poor in defending against big guys- they are the third worst team when it comes to points and 5th worst when it comes to rebounds allowed to centers.
-I am only scared of blowout or pf issues.

P.Beverley PRA [19.5] over 1u uni/all@1.89; MIN

-Since coming off the injury he is averaging PRA over 20 in 29 minutes he played on average- 4 out of these 5 games were blowout, so he would play around 34-35 minutes if not for that.
-No Edwards, and like everyone else, Bevereley is benefiting from this- he shots more, gets more assists and gets more rebounds- around 28 total per 36 minutes without Edwards.
-Easy match up in offense.

K.Porzingis PRA [33.5] over 1u uni/bet365@1.89; DAL

-Plays well without Doncic. in 6 games without him he had PRAs of 37, 37 in a heavy blowout, 23 in a blowout, 35 (pf issues), 37 and 36. Most importantly, he is taking plenty of shots in each of those- for example in the last game he took 23 and he played 39 minutes. They didn't played for 4 days so I believe that he could play good minutes today as well.
-Match up is not great.

J.Brunson PRA [29.5] over 1u uni/bet365@1.79; DAL

-In 7 games without Doncic he had PRAs of 37, 23 (heavy blowout mid game), 30 (blowout), 26, 32, 32 and 36. He is the guy benefiting the most from Doncic not playing- his usage rate increases by 10% and per 36 minutes he averages 32.5 but he plays more than 36 minutes in close games.
-Match up is bad, but close game is projected and I believe Brunson can go over the line if he plays expected amount of time today.

D.Lillard PRA [39.5] over 1u neds/sb/bf/all@1.98; POR

(on Neds you take 40+ PRa to get 1.98 odds);
-Last season he was averaging PRA of 40.5. In games without McCollum he averaged PRA of 44. He started this season alittle bit slower, but after coming off the injury he is averaging PRA of 42.5 across last 4 games.
-Memphis plays with a faster pace and that should be a plus today.
-Danger is blowout as always with Memphis.

T.Halilburton PRA [26.5] over 1.33u uni/all@1.89; SAC

-He is averaging PRA of 23.2 when playing at home;
-Kings are without Fox and Bagley- both guys that want the ball, especially Fox. Besides them, Kings are also without Davis, maybe Holmes, King, Len and Mitchell, so they will be very thin on 1 and 2, and because of it Halilburton should be playing big minutes today- around 40 if the game is close and he should also have a very nice usage rate without these guys. He will also act more as the main playmaker with Fox not playing, so he should also get more assists.
-Match up aint great, but both teams play with good pace and defense overall ain't great on either side, so this should be a higher scoring game with around 230 points which surely helps.
-Last game in similar situation he had PRA of 37 despite the blowout.