-He plays well this season, averaging 30 PRA in 30 minutes played, but this is thanks to plenty of blowouts- he usually plays 33-35 if the game is close enough, which this game should be. So by default in games where you don't outright expect a blowout- he is an over this margin.
-What makes it much better is that he is playing even better recently, but we also have a nice match up. GSW don't play with bigs- Looney plays less than 20 minutes per game and in two games against Phoenix he played 15 and 17. They choose to go small ball, but it ended up biting them in the ass because Ayton managed to hold his ground and not only that- he wreck d them both times, finishing with PRA of 37 in the first game, and 31 in the second game (big blowout).
G.Payton II PRA [20.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; GSW
(You can take him PR on neds for 18.5 as well.. he is on PR 20,5 on sb);
-Was thinking between him and Porter. Let's hope I didn't make a mistake.
-GSW is without several players including Iguadala, Lee, Moddy, Poole and Wiggins. Payton is confirmed as starter and should play good minutes today. Last game he played 33 minutes, but with Moody being OUT today, he might have to play few minutes exra.
-Phoenix's defense will be focused on Curry, so Payton could end up with better looks like he had in the last game where he went over this line on points alone, scoring 22 points. Phoenix plays with fast pace and that should surely help. Also in case of blowout, its not a gurantee that Payton will go to the bench so thats small bonus as well.
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L.James PRA [43.5] over 1.66u email@example.com; LAL
-When Davis isn't playing, Lebron is having PRAs of 51 (blowout against Spurs, 43 (just 34 min, blowout against Phoenix), 51, 51, 44 (blowout), 50 (ot, 41 in regular time). So generally he is putting up some crazy stats without Davis. He is playing close to 40 minutes in close games (this is projected to be a close game), and per 38 minutes without Davis he is averaging PRA of 45.5, but he will also play 12-15ish minutes without Westbrook as well, and he should have a huge usage rate during that time and he should also rebounds better and assist more with WB off the floor (around 2 extra rebounds per 36 minutes and almost 4 extra assists).
-He enjoys playing on Christmas and has good career stats when it comes to this game. Today he will be breaking Kobe's record for total points scored on this date.
-Opponent is good for over- Nets play with fast pace and with Durant not playing, their defense should be worse (they have some guys coming from missing several games in a row so I doubt their are in good condition and that they can keep up in defense).
R.Westbrook PRA [37.5] over 1.25u firstname.lastname@example.org; LAL
(38.5 is ok at 1u only)
-Last 3 games without Davis he had PRAs of 41 (big blowout), 37 (blowout, harder match up) and 37 (super hard match up). Today he is going against Nets which play with faster pace and don't have great defenders on the team right now and high scoring game is projected- around 225 points.
-When day-to-day Davis is out, WB is averaging roughly 1 PRA per minute played (slightly more, which is good because he should play close to 40 min if the game is close) and when both James and Davis are out, he is averaging PRA of around 45 per 36 minutes which is very important because he should get 12-15 minutes without James on the floor where WB should do majority of stuff in offense.
P.Mills PRA [23.5] over 1.33u email@example.com; BKN
(24.5 is fine, just do 1.25u instead and get better odds);
-Nets are without Durant and plenty of others, so Mills should work as the second option in offense behind Harden. He played well recently without Harden (just now instead of Harden not playing, Nets are without Durant) and in those 4 games, while playing big minutes, he had PRAs of 34, 22, 36 and 26.
-Depending on rotation of Nets, he should get some time without Harden on the floor and function as the main ball handler. When both Harden and Durant are off the floor, Mills' assist rate jumps by a lot, and so do his rebound numbers. He is taking 21 shot per 36 minutes without these two.
-Lakers play with fast pace so good number of points is projected here. Game is projected to be close so hopefully no blowout.