-Minnesota is without Edwards, Russell and Towns (and plenty of others). Someone has to play and do something in offense, and that should be Beasley today. Last 4 games since starting because Edwards isn't playing, he is averaging PRA of 28, and in all of those games either Russell or Towns played, or both.
-In the last game, Towns didn't played and Beasley took 25 shots, scoring 13 of those and finishing with PRA of 40.
J.Brown PRA [37.5] over 1.25u firstname.lastname@example.org; BOS
-Boston is without plenty of players, most importantly SChroder, Tatum, Richardson, Kanter and maybe even Smart. Tatum is the biggest ball hog in Boston, so with him not playing Brown should be doing majority of the work in offense.
-If we are to look at last season when Tatum wasn't playing, Brown was puting up great numbers almost every night.
-Minnesota is without their best defender Vanderbilt, but they are also without Towns and Reid (bad defenders tbf) and their rim will be protected by a guy with no real XP in NBA which should be a plus.
C.Wood PRA [31.5] over 1u bet365/uni/888@1,86; HOU
-He is playing well in recent games- two blowouts out of 3 games but he still had PRAs of 32, 31 and 35.
-Today's opponent is great for over. Hornets play fast with no defense, so 235 points is the line for this game. To make it better, they are the team that allows the most points to centers and at the same time- most assists.
-Porter and Green are GTD, if one of these don't play it will be a great thing for this bet as well.
Boj.Bogdanovic PRA [24.5] over 1u email@example.com; UTA
(This is Bojan from Utah, not the one from Atlanta; If the line is 25.5 I would only take it at 0.66u if the odds are close to 2,0$);
-He is averaging almost 24 this season.
-Today he should have an above average game because Mitchell isn't playing- thats 35 PRA that have to go somewhere and Bogdanovic for sure should benefit with having few extra shots. In the only game without Mitchel he had PRA of 30 in a big blowout;
-Opponent is great for over because Spurs play with fast pace so this game is projected at 230+ points.
J.Clarkson PRA [25.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; UTA
(26,5 on others, take at 0.66u and only if the odds are close to 2,0);
-No Mitchell. When Utah is without him or Conley, Clarkson was playing around 30 minutes which is a big 5 minutes increase from his 25 min average.
-He is averaging PRA of 32 per 36 minutes when Mitchell isn't playing, but today he will also play without Conley as well (for half of time) and when both of them are off (Mitchell and Conley), Clarkson is averaging PRA of almost 34 PRA per 36 minutes.
-Opponent is good for over as Spurs play with fast pace and 230+ points are projected here.
-In the only game without Mitchell, Clarkson had PRA of 37.
J.Poeltl PRA [24.5] under 1u email@example.com; SAS
(fine on 23.5 with better odds and 0.75u instead); He was 24.5 on sb/bf previously, so if you wait a little bit he might be back to 24.5)
-He is averaging PRA of 23 this season. Today he is going against Gobert, one of the worst possible match ups for someone who can't shoot. There won't be many second chance opportunities or tip ins for Poeltl today.
-They played on December 17 already. It was a 250+ points game that was close until end, but Poeltl ended up with 24 PRA despite that.
D.White PRA [29.5] over 0.66u firstname.lastname@example.org; SAS
-No Murray. He will move to PG and be the primary ball handler and could play few minutes extra. Last game he had PRA of 20 in 16 minutes, but his playing time was cut in half because Pistons got completely wrecked and he basically didn't played in the second half.
-Harder opponent today, but no blowout expected so White should play around 30+ minutes, have a good usage rate and assist much more than usual (6.5+ assists might be an even better bet).
P.Mills PRA [24.5] over 2u email@example.com; BKN
-Not only that we have a good margin again, but we also have nice odds.
-In the last 5 games (in which Nets played without either Harden or Durant) he is averaging PRA of 32.2, well above this margin.
-He should also get some playing time without Harden on the floor, and from the small sample we have, he has a huge 30%+ usage rate during that tiime. Besides taking more shots he is also being the primary ball handler which leads to more assists. (he is averaging 2.6 assists this season, but recently he is averaging 4.4).
-Also, very important- with so many people not playing in the Nets, they are kinda forced to play Mills for more than usual so in the last 5 games he doesn't have a single game bellow 35 minutes played (but he has two with more than 40) which is well above his 30 minutes per game average.
-Opponent is good for over. He will probably be matched up with Kennard for big part of the game and Kennard is not a good defender by any means. Man can be a decent defender, and Bledsoe has a body to be a good defender but low IQ is stopping him from being one.
N.Claxton PRA [16.5] over 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; BKN
-Nets are without Aldridge (and without Sharpe, Durant, Duke, Edwards and many others) so Claxton should be a starting center and play good minutes today because he is the only real center in the team. Clippers are playing Zubac for close to 30 minutes now, so I don't see a reason why would Claxton play less than 20 min today.
-In the last game, despite Lakers going small ball, Claxton managed to play 32 minutes. Because both Aldridge and Sharpe are out today as well, I believe that he is set for another 30 minutes game, and with that amount of time on the floor he shouldnt have issues getting 17 pra.
E.Bledsoe PRA [27.5] over 1.25u email@example.com; LAC
-Gotta take him after yesterday.
-Last 2 games he was starting and thanks to Jackson not playing he played 36 and 37 minutes, having PRAs of 34 and 30 in those two games.
-I expect a similar performance from him because Clippers are still without plenty of players, most notably George. Bledsoe will be the primary ball handler and I expect him to take plenty of shots and also assist many times. Match up in offese should be Harden and that shouldn't be a hard match up for Bledsoe.
-Blowout isn't expected here.
J.Brunson PRA [31.5] over 1u firstname.lastname@example.org; DAL
-He is playing huge minutes in last 5 games with Doncic being out and none of those 5 being blowouts, so he averaged almost 40 minutes (38.4) and PRA of 34;
-Besides Doncic, Dallas are also without Hardaway (30ish PRA), and with Doncic and Hardaway off the floor, Brunson is averaging PRA of 35.4; He should also get some playing time without Porzingis and during that time he should have an even higher usage rate which should result in few extra shots.
-Going against bad defense should be a big plus.
K.Porzingis PRA [33.5] over 1u email@example.com; DAL
-No Doncic and no Hardaway. When these two are off the floor Porzingis is having an usage rate of almost 35% and in the small sample we have, he is averaging PRA of 41.2 per 36 minutes.
-Portland is having big issues with players not being able to play today. They are without Zeller, Nurkic, Covington and others, so they will be without real center today and will play with Nance on 5 instead, with probably Nassir little on 4. Because of this, it should be easier for Porzingis to do damage today. Without Doncic this season Porzingis had PRAs of 39, 17 (injury), 38, 37 (big blowout), 23 (blowout), 35, 37 and 36. Its worth saying that Hardaway played in all of these except the last one and that Kleber is also OUT which might force Porzi to be played for an extra 2-3 min.
-Minnesota is without plenty of players, for us the most important ones being Towns, Reid, VanderBilt, Russell, Prince and Edwards.
-McDaniels should be looking at a much bigger playing time than usual (probably close to 40 minutes) and he should also be able to take more shots. Last two games he played 39 and 37 minutes and had PRAs of 22 (Towns played) and 32.
D.Lillard PRA [41.5] over 0.75u firstname.lastname@example.org; POR
-No Gollum, Nurkic and plenty of others. Lillard will have to do everything in the offese.
-Last 6 games he played almost 40 minutes on average and had PRA of over 43.
-Close game expected today, so we should see some Dame-time in the last quarter if it comes to that.
T.Mann PRA [23.5] over 0.66u email@example.com; LAC
-He is almost averaging this since starting. Today Clippers will also be without Batum and Jackson and George, so a little bit thin on 2 and 3 because of it, so Mann should be playing good amount of time today and have a decent usage rate.