Paolo Banchero UNDER 19.5 Points
Paolo Banchero has scored less than 20 points in 6 of his last 8 games while scoring 23 points in each of his last two games. However, those games were against the poor defense of the Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics who played without their best two defenders and rim protector in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III. Those were also home games where Banchero thrives as opposed to on the road where he has fallen short of this total in 5 straight games. Banchero has averaged only 17.6 points/game in his last 5 away games compared to 22.4 in his last 5 home games. Banchero scores 20.8 points per game on the season and on average 6 of those points come from the free throw line. He averages 6 makes on 7.8 attempts per game, however the Miami Heat allow the 2nd least free throws per game with only 18.8 fouls per game. More importantly, Miami allows the 4th least points per game to opposing power forwards with only 20.5 points per game. over the last 15 games, they are even better with only 19.23 points per game. Banchero will have to deal with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the paint, Butler rested a sore back in the Heat's last game, but he is all systems go for tonight. This game features the lowest total (219.5) and highest spread (8.5) so it's built for an under as we have a more likely chance of a blowout. It's much easier to score on Miami from the perimeter and the Magic have other scoring options like Wagner, Carter Jr, Fultz and even Cole Anthony. Watch for Banchero to fall short of this total as he is on road against a strong defense that doesn't foul and does an amazing job shutting down his position.


